Dangerous days ahead: a call to arms.

When Are Arms Races Dangerous?

Are arms races dangerous? This basic international relations question has received extensive attention.1 A large quantitative empirical literature addresses the consequences of arms races by focusing on whether they correlate with war, but remains divided on the answer.2 The theoretical literature falls into opposing camps: (1) arms races are driven by the security dilemma, are explained by the...

A Comparison of Univariate Time Series Methods for Forecasting Intraday Arrivals at a Call Center

Predictions of call center arrivals are a key input to staff scheduling models. It is, therefore, surprising that simplistic forecasting methods dominate practice, and that the research literature on forecasting arrivals is so small. In this paper, we evaluate univariate time series methods for forecasting intraday arrivals for lead times from one half-hour ahead to two weeks ahead. We analyze ...

Differing types of cellular phone conversations and dangerous driving.

This study sought to investigate the relationship between cell phone conversation type and dangerous driving behaviors. It was hypothesized that more emotional phone conversations engaged in while driving would produce greater frequencies of dangerous driving behaviors in a simulated environment than more mundane conversation or no phone conversation at all. Participants were semi-randomly assi...

Density Forecasting of Intraday Call Center Arrivals Using Models Based on Exponential Smoothing

A key input to the call center staffing process is a forecast for the number of calls arriving. Density forecasts of arrival rates are needed for analytical call center models, which assume Poisson arrivals with a stochastic arrival rate. Density forecasts of call volumes can be used in simulation models, and are also important for the analysis of outsourcing contracts. A forecasting method, th...

Preface: A Call to Arms